Il sito del Guardian riporta uno studio epidemiologico condotto sulla città di Heinsberg in Germania, che credo sia un analogo di quello effettuato a Vo Euganeo da Crisanti (su un campione più piccolo, 1000 residenti). Il 14% della popolazione ha incontrato il virus e possiede gli anticorpi, e la letalità è dello 0.37%).
Scientists and politicians in Germany have this morning presented some fascinating preliminary findings of a forensic study of the outbreak in the Heinsberg municipality on the Dutch border, which has been called "Germany's Wuhan".
For the "Covid-19 case cluster study", scientists from the University of Bonn went back to the town that had the first two fatalities from the virus in Germany and interviewed and tested 1,000 residents. Researchers are also trying to work out exactly how the virus got transmitted at a carnival event in the area on 15 February.
After analysing around half of the tests, the study's director, Prof Hendrick Streeck, said on Thursday morning that 14% of the population in the area had developed immunity after contracting the coronavirus. Previous estimated had put the infection rate at only around 5%.
Streeck said the fatality case rate of the virus in the area had also turned out to be considerably lower than the currently currently registered for the country as a whole. In Heinsberg, only 0.37% of people who contracted the virus had died.
The latest figure for Germany as a whole, as calculated by Johns Hopkins University, is 1.98%.
